Football and Basketball Analysis and Sports Wagering - My thoughts on statistical sports analysis & psychology of wagering

    This is the first Super Bowl I can remember in a long time that was decided almost solely by the strategy of the two coaches involved.
    Jim Caldwell, the Colts' coach, thinking he had the stronger team, came in with a conservative strategy, such as just don't make any mistakes and the game will go our way if we just avoid flukes and mistakes.
    Sean Payton, the New Orleans coach, came in with much the opposite strategy, attack, attack, attack, and use any and all trick plays, gadget plays, and go all-out to surprise the Colts with unconventional strategy and all-out attacking strategy.
    In this game, as we all know, Payton's strategy worked out in the end.
    In the 1st quarter, the Colts jumped out to a seemingly easy 10-0 lead with Garcon catching a 19-yard touchdown pass.
    Brees then drove to the Colts' 1 yard line where they got stuffed on running plays and it was 4th down. Conventional strategy called for a field goal, but Payton signaled to go for a touchdown.
    The Colts stuffed them again and they got zero points. The Colts weren't aggressive and they got the ball in good field position with very little time left. They managed to get a field goal out of it anyway and the score at half-time was 10-6 Colts.
    At the start of the 2nd half is where Payton's strategy really started to pay off. He called for an onside kick, unheard of in this situation, and it worked as the Saints recovered the ball around the 45. They went in subsequently for a touchdown to go up 13-10.
    For a period of about 20 minutes between the 2nd and 3rd quarters, Manning only had the ball once. If you can keep the ball away from Manning, he can't throw it. If he can't throw it, he can't throw a touchdown. If he can't throw a touchdown, it reduces the Colts' chance of winning.
    Anyway, the Colts rallied on Manning's pin point passing to take the lead again, 17-13.
    Garrett Hartley, the first year rookie, then kicked a field goal to make it 17-16 Colts. Hartley had a great day, kicking 47, 46, and 44 yard field goals to account for 9 of the Saints' first 16 points.
    Brees only missed 3 passes in the 2nd half and one was dropped and one was spiked. He drove the Saints to another touchdown to make it 24-17 Saints. Manning came in again with enough time to tie it up and made one of his few mistakes of the day by throwing an interception to Porter who cut in front of the receiver and went all the way to essentially end the game, 31-17.
    The Saints did play all-out and took tremendous chances and most of them came through and that accounted for the win.
    The Colts on the other hand, had numerous drops and other miscues including of course, the onside kick and were never aggressive, especially after their 1st quarter lead.
    Hank Baskett was the one who botched the onside kick and Chris Reis fell on it at the Saints' 42.
   Manning was great in the 1st quarter, evading the New Orleans pass rush twice on 3rd down to find open receivers- 1st tight end Dallas Clark then, wide receiver Austin Collie. He capped the drive with a 19-yarder to Garcon.
    Brees led the Saints on the go-ahead touchdown drive tapped by his 2 yard touchdown pass to tight end Jeremy Shockey.
    The game is played at such an unbelievably quick pace that the umpired cannot see what is happening so they had to resort to the on-field camera in order to realize that Lance Moore did actually catch the 2 point conversion catch to add 2 points to the Colts score instead of zero which was the original call.
    Once Drew Brees got time, he was simply too good with too many weapons.
    Brees hit 8 different receivers, distributed the ball evenly and simply kept finding the weak match-ups and gaps in the soft coverage played by the Indianapolis corner backs. He never got greedy.
    Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 10 catches and 93 receiving yards and 14 carries for 55 yards. Thomas was tough running the ball all day.
    Marques Colston was his usual dependable self, making 7 catches for 83 yards.
    This was a truly exciting game right up until the last couple minutes and as I said, one of the few if any Super Bowls I have seen which was decided definitely by strategy of the coaches coming into the game.
    So that ends the football season, but I will be continuing with the NBA and you can feel free to check both my NFL and NBA records.
    If you have any questions or comments or ideas, please do not hesitate to write, and I will be glad to answer.
   I don't know when next season's football will start, but I suspect the 1st week in September.

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February 8, 2010

My NFL (football) results against the spread up to Feb 7 and 2009-2010 season final, WIN 65 LOSS 24 + $38,600

Sun, Feb 7, Superbowl

Indianapolis -5 LOSS Indianapolis 17 New Orleans 31

date win losses win in 1000's w/l TOTAL$$

Sept 27 9 3 $5,700 9/3 $5,700

Oct 4 3 1 $1,900 12/4 $7,600

Oct 11 3 1 $1,900 15/5 $9,500

Oct 18 0 2 (-2200) 15/7 $7,300

Oct 25 3 0 $3,000 18/7 $10,300

Oct 26 1 0 $1000 19/7 $11,300

Nov 1 0 0 0 19/7 $11,300

Nov 8 2 1 $900 21/8 $12,200

Nov 15 1 1 (-$100) 22/9 $12,100

Nov 16 1 0 $1000 23/9 $13,100

Nov 22 4 3 $700 27/12 $13,800

Nov 26 2 0 $2,000 29/12 $15,800

Nov 29 2 0 $2,000 31/12 $17,800

Dec 6 4 4 (-$400) 35/16 $17,400

Dec 13 4 2 $1800 39/18 $19,200

Dec 17 1 0 $1000 40/18 $20,200

Dec 20 3 2 $800 43/20 $21,000

Dec 25 1 0 $1000 44/20 $22,000

Dec 27 4 1 $2,900 48/21 $24,900

Jan 3 7 0 $7,000 55/21 $31,900

Jan 9 2 0 $2,000 57/21 $33,900

Jan 10 1 1 (-$100) 58/22 $33,800

Jan 16 2 0 $2,000 60/22 $35,800

Jan 17 1 1 (-$100) 61/23 $35,700

Jan 24 4 0 $4,000 65/23 $39,700

Feb 7 0 1 (-$1000) 65/24 $38,600

TOTAL: 65 24 TOTAL: $38,600

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February 3, 2010

My NBA (basketball) results against the spread up to date, 2009-2010 season.

date wins losses total win in 1000's w/l TOTAL $$

Oct 30 0 1 (-$1100) 0/1 (-$1100)

Nov 3 2 1 $900 2/2 (-$200)

Nov 6 1 1 (-$100) 3/3 (-$300)

Nov 7 1 0 +$1000 4/3 $700

Nov 8 1 0 +$1000 5/3 $1,700

Nov 10 2 0 +$2000 7/3 $3,700

Nov 11 4 0 +$4000 11/3 $7,700

Nov 12 1 0 +$1000 12/3 $8,700

Nov 13 2 0 +$2000 14/3 $10,700

Nov 14 2 1 +$900 16/4 $11,600

Nov 16 1 0 +$1000 17/4 $12,600

Nov 17 1 0 +$1000 18/4 $13,600

Nov 18 1 0 +$1000 19/4 $14,600

Nov 20 1 0 +$1000 20/4 $15,600

Nov 22 1 0 +$1000 21/4 $16,600

Nov 23 1 0 +$1000 22/4 $17,600

Nov 26 1 0 +$1000 23/4 $18,600

Nov 27 1 0 +$1000 24/4 $19,600

Nov 29 0 1 ( -$1100) 24/5 $18,500

Dec 1 1 0 +$1000 25/5 $19,500

Dec 2 1 0 +$1000 26/5 $20,500

Dec 4 1 0 +$1000 27/5 $21,500

Dec 10 0 1 -$1100 27/6 20,400

Dec 12 1 0 +$1000 28/6 $21,400

Dec 13 1 0 +$1000 29/6 $22,400

Dec 18 0 1 ( -$1100) 29/7 $21,300

Dec 19 1 0 +$1000 30/7 $22,300

Dec 20 1 0 +$1000 31/7 $23,300

Dec 22 1 0 +$1000 32/7 $24,300

Dec 25 1 0 +$1000 33/7 $25,300

Dec 26 1 0 +$1000 34/7 $26,300

Dec 29 1 0 +$1000 35/7 $27,300

Jan 1 1 0 +$1000 36/7 $28,300

Jan 2 0 1 (-$1100) 36/8 $27,200

Jan 6 1 0 +$1000 37/8 $28,200

Jan 9 1 0 +$1000 38/8 $29,200

Jan 10 1 0 +$1000 39/8 $30,200

Jan 13 1 0 +$1000 40/8 $31,200

Jan 15 1 0 +$1000 41/8 $32,200

Jan 20 1 0 +$1000 42/8 $33,200

Jan 22 1 0 +$1000 43/8 $34,200

Jan 22 2 0 +$2000 45/8 $36,200

Jan 27 1 0 +$1000 46/8 $37,200

Jan 29 1 0 +$1000 47/8 $38,200

Jan 31 1 0 +$1000 48/8 $39,200

Feb 2 1 0 +$1000 49/8 $40,200

Feb 9 0 1 (-$1100) 49/9 $39,100

Feb 17 1 0 +$1000 50/9 $40,100

Feb 24 0 1 (-$1000) 50/10 $39,000

Mar 3 2 1 900 52/11 $39,900

Mar 9 1 0 +$1000 53/11 $40,900

Mar 11 1 0 +$1000 54/11 $41,900

TOTAL 54 11 $41,900

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February 3, 2010

My NBA (basketball) results against the spread up to Feb 2, 49 WIN 8 LOSS + $40,200

Tue Feb 2, 2010

Cleveland -10

Cleveland -105 WIN Memphis 89

Detailed up to date record of my NBA results against the spread, 2009-2010 season.

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February 1, 2010

It's highly unlikely that the Super Bowl game will exceed in excitement the two runner-up games.

It's highly unlikely that the Super Bowl game will exceed in excitement the two runner-up games that decided the teams for the Super Bowl.

Minnesota at New Orleans

    This game was one of the most exciting games I have ever seen in the play-offs.
    There was about a minute left and Favre had the Vikings within field goal range and all they had to do was attempt and make a relatively easy field goal to win the game.
    On the very next play, Favre got sacked and lost about 10 yards, now putting them out of field goal range.
    Favre, the old gun-slinger quarterback, tried to get them back in field-goal range by rolling out to his right and trying a desperate across the body pass that was easily intercepted by New Orleans.
    The game ended at this point in a 27-27 tie and they had to go into over time.
    At the coin toss New Orleans picked tails and it came up tails and New Orleans chose to receive the ball.
    Brees, the great New Orleans quarterback, slowly worked New Orleans down the field until they got in position for a 39-yard field goal.
    Their rookie kicker, who had not even completed a full season, trotted on to the field and kicked the 39-yarder just like that and that was the game.
    Favre played one of his best play-off games ever and still lost and it is a big question mark as to whether he will return next year at the age of 41.
    Speaking about retirement, Kurt Warner, one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, who is the only quarterback to ever lead two different teams to the Super Bowl, the only quarterback to pass for over 400 yards in the Super Bowl, not only that, but the only quarterback to have not one, but three 400-yard passing games in a Super Bowl. He is probably a surefire 1st round Hall of Famer.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

    This game too, as I remember, had its exciting moments because the huge underdog, New York Jets, with its blow hard coach Rex Ryan were leading the Colts 17-7 with less than a minute to go in the 1st half.
    Manning got the ball inside the Jets' 20 and only about 15 seconds left.
    He tried a pass in the end zone and it fell incomplete. The colts' coach was sending on the field goal team when Manning rushed out and held up one finger, meaning one more play.
    Manning later said, "We can always get a play off in way under 7 seconds."
    The coach relented and gave him one more play and he found Garcon in the corner of the end zone for a touchdown pass and they went in the locker room at half time trailing the Jets 17-14 instead of 17-10. That was a huge momentum change as Manning got the Colts into the end zone in less than 15 seconds. And you can't underestimate the value of these last-second scores right before the end of the half.

THE GAME THE ONLY GAME

    Michael Irvin, the former great wide receiver of the Dallas Cowboys was holding court on Thursday in Broward County as this was his home ground and the Super Bowl would actually be played here.
    The Hall of Fame-receiver was preening like a peacock with his NFL Network shirt and microphone wires poking from his collar, spiffy dress pants, black boots, and a big hunk of diamond in his ear.
    Irvin has plenty of stories to share about his experiences having won three Super Bowl rings and scored a pair of touchdowns in a span of 18 seconds in Super Bowl XXVII- the fastest pair in Super Bowl history. He went to the Pro Bowl five times.
    It probably all started with Isaac Bruce, a product of Fort Lauderdale Dillard, a guy who is second only to Jerry Rice in career yards and a guy Irvin calls, "one of the most under-appreciated players in history."
    Irvin recalls the days he, Lorenzo White, and Brian Blades were toothpick-legged boys dreaming of the NFL at Holiday Park, playing for Little League.
    Everyone always talked about Miami being a hotbed for football talent, but Irvin helped usher in a new generation of NFL stars from north of the county line.
    The shift in talent produces the likes of Leonard Meyers (Dillard), Asante Samuel (Boyde Anderson), Tyrone Carter (Eli), and Bryant McFadden (McArthur)- all Super Bowl winners.
    "All those kids I played with at Holiday Park were great athletes," said Bruce, who scored the 73-yard Super Bowl-winning touchdown for the St. Louis Rams in 1999.
    "Football is what we did down there, all year long. When the kids up north were inside in December, we were out there playing. South Florida kids have a certain confidence about them. An attitude I can spot a mile away. They're loud and rambunctious and boy, are the fast. Nowadays, there are as many kids like that from Broward as there are from Dade."
    Speaking of coaching genius, Rex Ryan, that out-spoken coach of the just-eliminated New York Jets was on the scene in South Miami. The Miami fans approached Ryan shouting, "The Jets suck," and a couple of expletives that begin with the letter "F."
    Ryan responded in kind by reportedly telling the Dolfan to "duck" himself. But Ryan mispronounced the word "duck." Ryan also extended his middle finger at the Dolfan to signify that Miami is #1. The Dolfan took a picture of the one-fingered salute and emailed it to media outlets. Thus, embarrassing photos are born. The NFL is looking into the matter. Luckily for Ryan, the incident was not reported to local police.
   Something amazing is bound to happen when the Super Bowl comes to South Florida. It's our history and out destiny.
    Remember, this is the place where Joe Namath promised a Super Bowl win and produced it. And this is the place were Steve Young finally got his first Super Bowl win.
    This is the place Vince Lombardi and Bill Walsh both came to climb to the top of their profession one last time, before ending their coaching careers.

Some Predictions from Players

49ers' tight end Vernon Davis: "It's going to be real simple: The Colts are going to win. Why? They got Peyton Manning. It's that easy. I don't think New Orleans is going to hang with them."

Jaguars' running back Maurice Jones-Drew: "The Colts. Their offense always plays at a high level, but for their defense to step up and play the Jets and from great pass offenses, I'm liking them to pull away with this one."

Dolphins' safety Yeremiah Bell: "It should be a fun game. I think it will be high scoring. Those are two explosive offenses over there, with two of the greatest quarterbacks we have today. They're so back and forth, and they're so efficient, I think whoever has the ball last will be the Super Bowl winner."

Vikings' running back Adrian Peterson: "I think it will be a good match up. I don't want to predict anything, but with the Colts coming in, they've been playing real well."

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